As The Basketball Turns: The Not-So-Wild West

Here we are. The field is smaller, and the stage is bigger. It's conference finals time, and I finished round two a solid three for four in my prognosticating: Part 1  Part 2

I went out on a limb with the uber-fun Warriors, and for a good few days, even they looked like a solid pick. Then, of course- reality hit and the Spurs remembered they were the Spurs. The once “wild” West had been tamed (at least partially) and order was semi-restored.

While both conference finals match-ups are set, I aim to focus my attention to the Western Conference. The defensive-minded Memphis Grizzlies take on the perennial-contending San Antonio Spurs in what looks to be a tough, half-court based series. Can Lionel Hollins keep his bunch believing they belong in the Finals, or will Greg Popovich pull out all the stops and take advantage of the perfect storm of the old guard (Ginobli, Parker, Duncan) blended with the new blood (Leonard, Green, Joseph)? As Yoda would say, "Waste time, let us not."

The Yes-We-Cans

Before the playoffs started, not a lot of people gave the Memphis Grizzlies a chance to get to this point. First, they had to beat a talented Clippers team (which ousted them in seven games in last year's opening round) and then get past the heavy favorite OKC Thunder.

But then something happened. To paraphrase The Real World- basketball stopped getting polite, and started getting real.

“Being polite” would be the expected or the assumed. Out West, the Thunder would have a clear path to the Finals along with the Miami Heat in the East.

“Getting real” began when Russell Westbrook collided with Houston’s Patrick Beverley who attempted to steal the ball. It put the young point guard out for the rest of the playoffs, made Beverley public enemy number one in OKC and put the ball in motion to alleviate some pressure for Memphis.

The phase only continued when “Lob City” a.k.a. the Los Angeles Clippers were grounded by the gritty defense of the Grizzlies. Vinny Del Negro was at a disadvantage for two reasons: he can’t coach effectively, and even if he could- his team wasn’t designed to play half court against such an aggressive Memphis team that is the top-rated defense in terms of points allowed.  Chris Paul grew frustrated, Blake Griffin showed how one dimensional his game is (when he is slowed down, it’s painfully obvious), and the team from Tennessee led by the Randolph/Gasol duo dominated for four wins in a row.

The Thunder escaped a valiant effort from the upstart Rockets, and people gave them a fifty/fifty chance against an underrated Grizzlies team. OKC started off with a gutsy two-point win at home, coming from behind in the final minute. This was a telling sign, as a fully-loaded Thunder with Durant and Westbrook would have likely handled Memphis at home. Once Randolph and company took that stinging loss, they regrouped and only got tighter on defense. They won the next four games by six, six, six and four. If there’s one thing that Hollins’ team can do- it’s win close games. Durant was forced to do too much without his buddy and their lack of bench support was exposed for the world to see.

Losing two, and then winning four in the first round. Losing one, then winning four in a row again in the semi-finals. It’s like Memphis enjoys being punched in the mouth, only to retaliate with complete domination.  While none of their players have been averaging more than 19 points in the postseason, the triumvirate of Conley, Gasol and Randolph has truly been lethal. They simply have not had to put up points, only allowing 92.4 points per game.

The duo of Gasol and Randolph have averaged 37 points and 17 rebounds per game. While Tim Duncan has always been great on defense and on the boards, not even he will be able to keep up with the relentless pace these two go at for four quarters. Even if Duncan can shut down one, who will match up with the other? Diaw? Splitter? Bonnar? The Grizzlies will have an advantage either way here, and will look to capitalize on the glass to secure wins.

The glaring weakness I have noticed with the Grizzlies is the team’s shooting. They do not have a player like a Stephen Curry, a Carmelo Anthony or Kevin Durant that can come down and drain automatic jumpers. Heck- they don’t even have a Kevin Martin-caliber shooter. With a team not built around a superstar or two, a role-playing shooter would have a huge impact and stretch the Spurs defense to not just focus on mid-range jumpers and shots in the paint. If Memphis wants to play well and give themselves a shot to get to the Finals, someone (Allen, Conley, Prince, Pondexter) will have to be consistent here.

The We’ve Been Here Before’s

Greg Popovich should stop wearing button up shirts and ties and sports coats to games. He simply needs to wear a t-shirt that says “Genuis @ Work.” Seamlessly transitioning from the David Robinson era to the Tim Duncan era, then adding pieces here like Parker, Ginobli and more recently Leonard and Green…it’s almost not fair.

After dispatching of a depleted Lakers squad that also lacked motivation, the Spurs were matched- up against the young Warriors. Golden State had no business beating Denver, let alone giving the Spurs a massive uppercut in Games 1 and 2 in San Antonio.

They were up sixteen points with four minutes to go in Game 1, before the Spurs came back and put the Warriors down. The next game, the Warriors grabbed momentum with a 10-point win. Heading back to Oracle Arena splitting the series on the road was nothing short of a gift, with the chance to step on the Spurs’ throat. The Warriors handled the third game like the first and gave back control to Duncan’s bunch, but tied it 2-2 later on. It was at this point that the Popovich and his acolytes decided enough was enough and took complete control, winning 4-2.

The Spurs struggled more than a few times trying to stop both Thompson and Curry’s hot shooting. If it wasn’t them, it was Jarrett Jack’s fearlessly slashing into the lane and coming up clutch for Golden State. They made the proper adjustments, and Danny Green along with Kawhi Leonard hit big three after big three to sink Golden State. Their athleticism mixed with consistency helped the Spurs’ Big Three squash this young team that dared to challenge them.

The biggest difference is the fact that the Spurs will not average 102.8 points per game. They’ll be lucky to break 95-100 against Memphis, even with their massive shooting advantage. Matt Bonnar might even get more minutes, as to stretch the Grizzlies’ defense and allow even more shots for Duncan and Parker. Parker’s speed will be matched well by Conley’s on both sides of the ball, essentially canceling those two out. Ginobli will be shut down by Tony Allen. There’s almost nothing more to be said than that, as Ginobli has been prone to more than a few bad shooting nights this year.

Duncan might have a few stellar efforts against Randolph and Gasol based off his savvy know-how and veteran instinct. He’ll make whoever is guarding him work extra hard, but something tells me his age might catch up to him at some point. Green will be the team’s biggest breakout star even more than he already has been, but the bigger the stage- the more the unknowns. Can he and Leonard continue their dagger-like perimeter-shooting? That will be paramount to their success against the Grizzlies.

And the Winner Goes to…..

The Memphis Grizzlies win in six games, 4-2.

They’ll take a punch or two in the mouth, but for now they will be overlooked by most as inferior to the crafty Spurs. The young, defenseless Warriors exposed the Spurs’ faults for the world to see, and the Grizzlies will be far more capable to shut the aging Spurs down on more than one occasion.

What it simply boils down to is that the Grizzlies will return the West to its wild, unpredictable ways instead of the Spurs' domesticated, fundamental nature. And in nature, a Grizzly sounds way more terrifying, right?

Of course it does.



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