Thursday, March 21, 2013

It's Getting Hot in Here: Can Anyone Beat the Heat?

The Miami Heat just won their twenty-fourth game in a row, continuing  a reign of basketball dominance not seen since the 1972 Lakers with Jerry "The Logo" West and Kareem Abdul Jabar. That team holds the all-time record with thirty-three straight wins. There are three questions that should be on every fan's mind: How do the Heat compare to the '72 Lakers? Can the Heat beat the all-time consecutive wins record?  Lastly and most importantly, can anyone beat the Heat?

1. How do the Heat compare to the '72 Lakers?

During their thirty-three game win streak, the Lakers averaged 123.3 points per game. They averaged 121 for the whole season. Their defense was lacking, giving up 108 points per game, but with so much energy focused on the offensive end, that's expected. During their current streak, the Heat average a respectable 105.1 points per game. Impressive by today's standards, but compare that to the fact that the Lakers smallest number of points in a game during their streak was 104 and it makes a big difference.

One argument a Heat supporter could make would be that it is a different time where athletes have evolved and talent is spread more evenly, thus putting an end to dynasty-like teams like those Lakers. This could be true in a way. Back then medicine and treatment of players was vastly different, and players weren't built like they are now.

The counter to this argument is two things. First, that era of play saw college players stay all four years so when they got to the NBA, the competition was stiffer and made the game better. Secondly, regardless of when the streak took place, the Lakers simply dominated. The most points the Heat have scored so far was 141 in a double overtime win against the Kings back on February 26th. The Lakers scored more than that twice (143, 154)..in regulation.

There are two things the Heat have going for them. One is the fact that this streak has come late in the season during a time when most teams will have been worn down by the tiresome and grueling NBA schedule. LeBron James just keeps going, even getting his fourth triple-double this season (25 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists). His biggest injury scare was landing awkwardly a few weeks ago, but simply shook it off once he stood up. Dwayne Wade has found the fountain of youth with an extra spring in his step nailing jumpers consistently and taking defenders off the dribble as well as helping lead the NBA's most lethal fast break.

The second thing the Heat have is that they can win close games, with six (25%) of their wins during the streak coming within five points. In comparison, the Lakers only had two games (6%) in which  they were within five points.

The biggest thing I notice during this streak is that the Heat have shown such resilience that not many frontrunners have, being pegged by many to repeat as champions. Complacency and overconfidence becomes a cancer that can effect the most talented teams, but  not the 2012-2013 Heat. Their two most recent win came after being down 17 and 27 points to the Celtics and Cavs. Against the Cavs, there was about four minutes left in the game when they were down by 27 points. I can't point to a specific point at what made them turn the heat up (pun intended), but they forced turnovers, defended the basket and outshot the Cavs, nailing three after three.

When it comes down to it, comparing two teams from different time periods is near impossible because of so many "what-if's". With that being said, I think the sheer supremacy of that championship Lakers team was  a bit more impressive.

2. Can the Heat break the forty-one year consecutive wins record of 33 straight wins?

To begin to answer the second question, one must simply gander at the remaining schedule ahead of LeBron James and company.

Fri, Mar 22           Detroit
Sun, Mar 24        Charlotte
Mon, Mar 25      @Orlando
Wed, Mar 27     @ Chicago
Fri, Mar 29           @New Orleans
Sun, Mar 31        @Spurs   
Tue, Apr 2           NY Knicks 
Fri, Apr 5              @Charlotte
Sat, Apr 6             Philadelphia
Tue, Apr 9           Milwaukee
Wed, Apr 10       @Washington
Fri, Apr 12            Boston
Sun, Apr 14         Chicago
Mon, Apr 15       @Cleveland
Wed, Apr 17       Orlando

One cliche you always see in sports is "Take one game at a time". The Heat are not overlooking any team, but by the way they are playing, I don't see any real threats to the streak until late March when they play the Spurs on the road.

A road win against the Spurs is a daunting task for any team, but this is the time of year  when some teams to begin to rest their players for the playoff runs. The Spurs are the number one team in the Western Conference, and we all know coach Greg Popovich is no stranger to resting players. As of late Tim Duncan has been playing some of the best ball in years this season, especially in his last three games (27.6 ppg, 14.7 rebounds, 3.3 blocks per game), similar to Dwayne Wade. This old dog is not ready to be put down. This game's outcome all hinges on the health of point guard Tony Parker. He has been out since March 1st with a sprained ankle, and had been playing MVP-caliber ball (21.0 ppg, 7.6 assists per game).

While I can't ignore the Knicks as a threat to the streak (they have beaten Miami two out of three times), they haven't shown me enough to think they could be the ones to end it. Their lone loss to the Heat came on March 3rd after being up 16 points..at home. The Heat are starting to put together more fourth quarter comebacks than Tim Tebow in 2011-2012. Carmelo Anthony is a fantastic player and an elite scorer, but there's a reason he has never been to an NBA Finals: he doesn't have IT. He can't make his team better like LeBron and he gives up on defense at times. There are also too many injury woes for the Knicks (Tyson Chandler, Iman Shumpert, Amare Stoudemire).

The last possible threat is the Boston Celtics in Miami on April 12th. Kevin Garnett should be back then, and they will be seething at the mouth to make up for blowing a 17 point lead last Monday.  (On a side note, if you Google Jason Terry, two related searches pop up, one is LeBron dunk on Jason Terry and the other is titled "Jason Terry Death" pops up.  That's never a good sign for one's career.) Oh and Jason, one more thing- Bron's not sorry.

If they beat the Spurs and Knicks, the record would be tied on April 6th against a terrible Philadelphia team, and broken on April 9th against a mediocre Bucks team. If they continue to win, the streak would extend to 39 games. Based off the way they never get down in games no matter what, I cannot possibly put this past this year's Heat.

3. Can anyone beat the Heat?

No.

Well that would be the easy answer. No team is unbeatable, but the Heat have seemingly addressed any and every flaw they have during the streak. Part of me wonders if they purposely get down big  and keep games tight just to prove that  LeBron is a crunch time leader and that they can do anything. Years ago, one would question LeBron's mental toughness. But last season and this year? No, sir. He has the intelligence of Kobe Bryant while exceeding Bryan in terms of a physical specimen. His third straight MVP could have been announced a month ago.

In the East, there is not one team that I can argue would unseed the reigning champions. The last loss came against the Pacers on February 11th, but that was a completely different time. The Knicks and Nets would never last in a seven game series with the defending champs. All that is left to question is who will the Heat face in the Finals.

The Spurs and Thunder are the two most obvious choices, with the Clippers on the outside, still somewhat unproven. The Spurs age might be an issue late in the season and haven't been to the Finals since 2007. The Thunder are a young and talented team, but losing Harden could end up being a bigger deal than they let on. The Grizzlies could prevent a different kind of physical game against the Heat, but are no locks to win the West. Thus, at this point and time  I cannot confidently say that anyone can beat Miami.

LeBron's "Decision" launched the Heat into the Championship stratusphere and set the franchise on a completely different path than if he chose a different team. It took some adjusting in 2010 (even then they still made the Finals), but since then they have had the best synergy of any team in the NBA.

Like them or love them, all NBA fans now respect them and rightfully so.

No comments:

Post a Comment