Well, so much for my "Win or Go Home Weekend" article. We headed into
Friday with four game sixes and the opportunity for more weekend drama
than a Hamptons getaway with the Lohans, Amanda Bynes and the
Kardashians all rolled into one. We left with one game seven on Saturday
between the Bulls and Nets and more of a "ho hum" feel. Life goes on,
on to the second round we go Sunday.
(5) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (1) Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City
For OKC fans, there's BRWGH and ARWGH. No, they aren't sounds they
make when using mouthwash. It's "Before Russell Westbrook Got Hurt" and
"After Russell Westbrook Got Hurt." Let's have a look, shall we?
Two games with Westbrook (averages):
112.5 ppg, 24 apg, 48% FG, 36% 3PFG, 40.5 rpg, 12.5 turnovers
Four games without Westbrook (averages):
102.5 ppg, 18.3 apg, 44% FG, 36.9 3PFG, 42.3 rpg, 12.3 turnovers
What do those numbers tell us exactly? Without Westbrook, the third
highest scoring offense in the regular season will need to get more
people involved and shoot at a better clip if they want to even have a
chance against a fierce Grizzlies team.
Before the Houston series and season-ending injury to Russell
Westbrook, the Thunder were clear favorites to come out the other side
of the Western Conference playoffs and face the Miami Heat in the
Finals. Now after six games against a young, hungry Houston team took
them farther than anyone expected, Kevin Durant and his posse are up
against the Memphis Grizzlies. A number of question marks follow the
Thunder, but there is only one that decides the series: How much does
Durant have in him? And no, I don't mean Gatorade.
In three games against Houston, Durant had games of 36, 38 and 41
points. Those were all without Russell Westbrook. They went 1-2 as well.
In the other three games they won, Durant scored 24, 29 and 27.
Ok, Sean- what's your point?
My point is that Durant doesn't need to score all the time for the
Thunder to advance. The reason they won so handily on Friday was because
their offense was a bit less predictable. They weathered Houston's
early storm and their 14 three-pointers. After being absolutely dreadful
on defense over the course of the series, they locked down the win in
the fourth as Houston shot 6-18. It also helped Kevin Martin had 25
points and not 3, shooting 7-13 and not 1-10. Six players scored in
double digits. As long as they stop the "Let's watch Kevin do Durantula
things" offense and work the rock around, the Thunder can keep the
series close.
Memphis
The Grizzlies are predicated on defense, and it shows. They were
first in points allowed per game during the season with 89.3. In the
first round they slowed down "Lob City" to only 94.6 points per game
over six games. After dropping the first two in LA, the Grizz won four
straight. In those four games they held the Clippers to only 90.8 points
per game and won by an average of 14 points- it wasn't even close.
Lionel Hollins and crew made the right adjustments, and once they got in
their groove, the train from Memphis steamrolled the Clippers.
Team A, Players 1 and 2: Round 1
13.8 points per game, 11.8 rebounds per game
Team B, Players 1 and 2: Round 1
40 points per game, 15.4 rebounds per game.
The first is Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka. The second is Marc
Gasol and Zach Randolph. This series will be decided on the inside, and
the Grizzlies have the complete advantage over the Thunder in that
department.
Point guard Mike Conley has finally grown into the player we all
wished he would after being drafted in 2007. He averaged 18.9 points and
9 assists per game against the Clippers and will give Reggie Jackson
fits. Don't expect it to get better when he steps off the floor, either.
Back-up Jerryd Bayless (the fourth point guard drafted in 2008 after
Rose, Westbrook and..DJ Augustin?!) will run circles around Derek
Fisher.
Team A: 29% 3PFG
Team B: 27% 3PFG
The first team is OKC from the first round, and the second is Memphis
from the first round. One would think Oklahoma City would have a
decided advantage in this area, but Martin and Sefalosha have been very
inconsistent. When it all falls on Durant to drain three's, he can
become far less accurate. The only shooter than can rely on game in and
game out after Durant is Fisher.
Memphis on the other hand doesn't even have anything close to a
consistent and deadly shooter. Conley is their best option, as Tony
Allen and Teyshaun Prince are used mainly for their length on defense.
Memphis' defense is the answer to any high-powered offense, even
one with Russell Westbrook. Now that he's out, it only makes the road
tougher for OKC. Durant cannot do it all, and I do not expect them to be
able to be consistent enough on offense to offset the Grizzlie's
smothering defense.
Final Verdict: Memphis wins 4-2.
(3) Indiana Pacers vs. (2) New York Knicks
New York
For all the talk about the talk about the Knicks being an offensive
force, all I can think after their Boston series is how they are an offensive force...in
the bad sense. While no one saw the series as a track meet with
explosive scoring, the fact that the Knicks couldn't score more than 90
points in six games against a 7 seed is pretty telling.
What else was telling? Wearing all black heading into a game 5
blowout loss to Boston, then when faced with questions about their
pre-game attire, the team chose to avoid answering them. Also, almost
blowing a 26 point lead in game 6 did not do them any favors, either.
Their focal points are Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith. While talented
scorers, they are both incredibly streaky. Yes, Carmelo is one of the
best scorers in the league (and he finally improved his defense
this season) creating shots from pretty much anywhere, but he lacks
efficiency. Anthony was nothing short of lousy against the Celtics,
shooting 37% and a measly 18% from deep. Smith shot 39% and a
respectable 40% from beyond the arc.
The biggest difference between Anthony and players like LeBron and
Durant is that he does not elevate his team's play. He can get hot and
take over games, but seems allergic to assists, averaging 2.1 on the
season and 1.8 against Boston. Thank God they have Jason Kidd, whose
almost 60.
A saving grace for this Knicks team? They have the league's seventh
best defense in large part to Anthony's improvement, Tyson Chandler,
Marcus Camby, Iman Shumpert and Jason Kidd.
Regardless of their solid defense, though, streaky shooting and a
lack of involving others (30th in assists on the season) will not beat a
smart and savvy Pacers team.
Indiana
The Pacers are led by the NBA's Most Improved Player, Paul George. He
has been nothing short of phenomenal this season and into the
postseason. He started it off with a bang, getting a triple double (23,
12, 11) in Game 1 versus the Hawks. His play remained consistent up
until their Game 6 win on Friday. He struggled from the field, going
2-10 and 0-5 from deep, ending up with only 4 points. Every star is due
for a bad game, so it's possible he got it out of the way- which is bad
news for the Knicks.
The silver lining to his poor game is that they still won, 81-73.
Even when he was shooting poorly, George still managed to be involved
with 7 rebounds and 7 assists. David West, Roy Hibbert and George Hill
combined for 59 points to bail their star out. Lance Stephenson showed
up, too with 8 points and 11 rebounds.
Indiana's other two strong points are their rebounding and defense.
They are first in the league with 46 rebounds per game, thanks to Roy
Hibbert and David West. They are second in the league in points allowed
with 90.7 per game. If the Knicks shoot poorly against the Pacers, the
boys from Indiana will make them pay dearly- and it could get ugly.
While Indiana only scores 94.7 points a game, they have the ability
to make the Knicks play their style of basketball, and not the other way
around. Anthony and Smith have been known to check out mentally when
their shots aren't falling, and they lack a bench or scoring support to
help offset that.
Final Verdict: Indiana wins 4-2.
The second round starts off Sunday on ABC with the Thunder hosting
the Grizzlies at 1 pm, followed by the Pacers visiting New York at 3:30.
Enjoy the games and check back on Monday afternoon for Part 2 of my
second round preview of the 2013 NBA Playoffs.
Like it? Love it? Hate it? Contact me on Twitter @SeanNeutron.
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